Warm Iberian winds set to sweep Wales sparking dreams of summer in April

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Wales is bracing for a notable shift in weather as the end of April approaches, with the Met Office indicating a spell of “dry and sunny” conditions, though speculation of a heatwave remains unconfirmed.
WX Charts have pointed to a surge in temperatures across the nation, attributed to a warm Iberian jet stream, with predictions that Cardiff could see highs of 20°C on April 26, while the Met Office maintains its daily forecasts only extend seven days ahead and highlights that “early May will probably see a good deal of settled weather with high pressure patterns most likely to dominate.” The long-range outlook from the Met Office adds, “Whilst some spells of more unsettled weather are possible at times, these perhaps more likely towards mid-May, much of the period is expected be largely fine and dry,” and “temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above average overall.”
Despite the optimism for warmer weather, Wales has experienced a slightly warmer April than usual, with temperatures so far 0.6°C above the historical average and daily highs expected to hover around 14°C, in line with typical late April conditions.
April in Wales is known for its heavy rainfall, with over 20 rainy days and average precipitation exceeding 105 mm, and this year is no exception, as the Met Office weather maps reveal an unsettled Easter weekend with downpours expected on Friday and Saturday before a dry spell on Sunday, prompting a yellow weather warning for rain in Cornwall, Devon, Plymouth, and Torbay.
BBC Breakfast weather presenter Carol Kirkwood provided some reassurance, stating “it is not a washout,” while the Met Office forecast for the rest of April notes, “many areas look to be rather showery, with the heaviest and most frequent showers more likely in the south,” and adds, “with time, this showery theme should become more confined to southern areas as pressure builds from the north, and by the final weekend of April high pressure may dominate most of the UK.”
The variability in forecasts is underscored by the Met Office’s reliance on hundreds of computer model simulations, with a spokeswoman explaining, “Our expert forecasters are aware of the intricacies of different weather simulations and, crucially, know which ones to refer to and when.” As April draws to a close, the Met Office suggests, “It is possible that by the end of April, warmer conditions may develop, either through increased amounts of sunshine day on day or through a southerly airflow becoming established,” but cautions that different simulations can yield contrasting pictures and that one-off charts do not provide the broader forecasting context.
In a striking visual moment, the Northern Lights were visible in Wales last night, painting the skies pink in Undy, Monmouthshire, offering a rare spectacle amidst the shifting weather patterns and underscoring the unpredictable nature of spring in the region.