Quebec independence back on agenda after PQ election win
Parti Québécois returns to power, pledges a referendum within four years, reshaping Quebec politics amid US trade tensions.
The Parti Québécois has surged back into power in Quebec, reviving the province’s long‑standing push for independence after a 14‑year absence from government.
The centre‑left nationalist party secured 59 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly, forming a minority government for the first time since 2008.
The Liberal opposition holds 40 seats, the Conservative bloc 19, while left‑wing Québec Solidaire occupies nine, leaving the PQ short of a majority.
Party leader Paul St‑Pierre Plamondon, soon to be premier, warned that “Some might say that it’s too much to ask for the same things as other countries in the world,” adding that “[But] almost everyone in Quebec was predicting the death of the Parti Québécois.”
In his victory speech he pledged a referendum on sovereignty within the next four years, but insisted the vote would not be held until after the United States’ presidential term ends in 2028.
“An issue as crucial as the political future of Quebec requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate,” he wrote in August. “It must not be hijacked by the ups and downs of American politics, nor by the outbursts of an unpredictable president, nor by fear‑mongering campaigns.”
Support for secession has slipped to roughly 30 % of Quebecers, down from 40 % when former US President Donald Trump won the 2024 election, a decline attributed to the trade war he launched against Canada.
The trade dispute, which heightened the appeal of remaining within a larger federation, also boosted the popularity of Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister, further complicating the PQ’s independence narrative.
The party’s fortunes had plummeted to a mere three seats in the 2022 election after a series of setbacks, including the 2014 defeat of former leader Pauline Marois and the rise of the Coalition Avenir Québec under François Legault.
Professor Daniel Béland of McGill University observed, “Legault was a popular premier for several years but, after the landslide victory of the CAQ in 2022, things started to unravel and his popularity declined gradually,” adding that “Legault resigned earlier this year but, by that time, the party was highly unpopular and his successor Christine Fréchette ultimately failed to turn things around for the CAQ.” Paul St‑Pierre Plamondon did an excellent job in criticizing the CAQ government while the official opposition Liberals struggled without a permanent leader for a couple of years.
As the CAQ’s popularity started to decline, many Francophone voters returned to the PQ.”
Without a majority, the new premier will need the backing of Québec Solidaire’s nine members to advance a third referendum, a partnership that has proved uneasy in the past.
Ruba Ghazal, a leading figure in Québec Solidaire, said the party had “stayed true to its values” while “all of our rivals have turned to the right.”
The PQ’s first‑100‑day agenda lists four measures aimed at easing the cost of living, alongside tighter immigration controls and a promise to cut bureaucratic red tape.
On fiscal restraint the party finds common ground with the Conservatives, whose leader Éric Duhaime pledged “constructive opposition” but ruled out any support for an independence referendum.
Political columnist Michel David warned, “The average lifespan of minority governments suggests that another election could take place in Quebec before the White House welcomes a new occupant.”
As the PQ prepares to navigate a fragile minority, the promised referendum remains tethered to the end of the current US administration, setting the stage for a protracted debate over Quebec’s constitutional future.