Cardiff researcher to lead study on behaviour and disease spread
New Cardiff University programme will examine how public trust and social behaviour affect respiratory virus transmission, feeding into future epidemic models.
Cardiff University will spearhead a £54 million UKRI‑funded research programme that examines how human behaviour and public trust shape the spread of respiratory infections.
Professor Kavita Vedhara, a leading psychologist at the university’s School of Psychology, has been appointed to head the study, which aims to embed social dynamics into epidemic models for more realistic predictions.
“Our new research programme hopes to transform our preparedness for future epidemics and pandemics.” We will achieve this by uncovering how people’s behaviours, their use of social settings and levels of trust influence how respiratory viruses spread,” she said.
The project will map how everyday activities – from commuting and attending events to the way people interact in shops and workplaces – affect virus transmission.
Data will be gathered through surveys, digital tracking and controlled experiments, allowing researchers to quantify the impact of factors such as mask wearing, social distancing fatigue and confidence in health authorities.
“We will also work closely with those involved in shaping public health policy across the UK to ensure that policymakers can design more targeted, effective and equitable measures to control future outbreaks, while also reducing the risks of societal harm we observed in the last pandemic,” Professor Vedhara added.
Findings will be fed directly into the next generation of epidemic models, which traditionally rely on biological parameters alone.
By integrating behavioural insights, the models aim to forecast not only the speed of viral spread but also the likely public response to interventions such as lockdowns or vaccination campaigns.
The Cardiff study forms one of 18 projects under the wider UKRI initiative that tackles threats to human, animal and plant health, including antimicrobial resistance and the development of next‑generation animal vaccines.
Researchers across the programme will collaborate with international partners, reflecting a One Health approach that recognises the interconnectedness of people, animals and the environment.
Professor Anne Ferguson‑Smith, UKRI’s executive champion for tackling infections, said that bringing together expertise from the UK and overseas would help researchers address related infectious disease challenges in a more coordinated way.
Other projects within the programme will focus on rapid diagnostic tools, novel vaccine platforms and strategies to curb the spread of zoonotic diseases.
The investment signals a shift towards preventative science, moving beyond reactionary measures to anticipate and mitigate outbreaks before they spiral.
Public health officials have welcomed the emphasis on behavioural research, noting that the COVID‑19 pandemic exposed gaps in understanding how societies respond to health emergencies.
“Understanding the social fabric is as crucial as the virology,” a senior NHS adviser commented, highlighting the need for policies that are both scientifically sound and socially acceptable.
Cardiff University expects to publish initial results within the next 12 months, with interim reports guiding policy adjustments throughout the study period.
The research will also involve community engagement, ensuring that diverse voices are heard when shaping recommendations for future outbreak management.
Stakeholders from local authorities, NHS Wales and charitable organisations have pledged support, signalling a collaborative effort to translate research into practice.
As the UK prepares for the next wave of infectious threats, the integration of behavioural science into epidemic preparedness could redefine how the nation safeguards public health.