Carney: England have it all to do to avoid World Cup exit

England’s Rugby League World Cup campaign hangs by a thread, with Brian Carney warning that the national team “have it all to do” to avoid a historic group-stage exit. The squad, managed by Brian McDermott, faces a critical path to qualification that depends heavily on results outside their control. Their 30-12 defeat to Tonga in the opening match initially cast serious doubt over their knockout prospects.

Despite a commanding 82-0 victory against France on Saturday, the team still requires a specific sequence of events to progress. England must secure a large-margin win against Papua New Guinea in Wollongong on Friday. They will then wait two days to learn their fate, as Tonga face Samoa in Sydney on Sunday.

A Samoa victory would eliminate England from the tournament, while a Tonga win could allow the hosts to progress on points difference. The current tournament features a unique format with six teams included in Pools B and C, complicating the standings. If multiple teams finish tied, final group positions are determined by head-to-head records.

This rule means Tonga would finish above England in the standings following their first-round victory. England currently trails Samoa by a points difference margin of 68 heading into the final round of fixtures. The squad must cut this significant deficit with a big win against Papua New Guinea to leapfrog their rivals.

Carney noted the initial reaction to the Tonga loss, stating: “The whistle went on the Tonga game and everybody went: ‘Well, this format is appalling.” England are essentially out. It’s one and done in the tournament’.

He observed that the team built a huge scoreline against France to give themselves hope.

The analyst emphasised that England must replicate their performance against France against a Papua New Guinea side he found disappointing. “They’re going to have to do the same again against a PNG side who I have found disappointing in the tournament so far,” Carney said. The team needs Tonga to beat Samoa, meaning they require an awful lot to go their way.

Carney advised the squad to focus on what they can influence, a common mantra in high-pressure sports. “What England have to do, and you’ve heard this a thousand times in different sports, is control the controllables,” he explained. The players must go out and pile on the points, as the more points they score, the less Tonga need to win by.

The upcoming fixtures are scheduled for Friday, 30 October, with England facing Papua New Guinea at WIN Stadium in Wollongong at 9.05am. On Sunday, 1 November, Lebanon will play France at CommBank Stadium in Sydney at 6.40am. Tonga and Samoa will conclude the group stage at the same venue at 9.05am.

Meanwhile, the England women’s side suffered a heavy 78-0 defeat to defending world champions Australia on Saturday. This loss follows a 90-4 defeat to the Jillaroos in Las Vegas in March 2025, highlighting the gap between the teams. Despite opening the tournament with a commanding 70-6 victory over Wales, the women’s squad faces a winner-takes-all clash against Samoa on Saturday.

Manager Stuart Barrow’s side must secure a victory to guarantee their place in the knockout stages. Reflecting on the heavy defeat to Australia, McDermott acknowledged that significant changes are needed across all levels of rugby league in the UK. He stated that substantial improvements are required if England are to close the gap on the Jillaroos.

Carney questioned the expectations placed on the women’s team, asking: “I’d ask this question: ‘What did one expect?’” He pointed out that the English side comes from a competition struggling for competitive games and resources. In contrast, the Jillaroos are very well resourced in a competitive environment with strong competition.

The analyst noted that all the best players in the world are in Australia’s competition, the NRLW. “So I’m not sure what people expected the game to be,” Carney said, questioning whether the performance was an improvement on the Las Vegas defeat. He admitted that while some argue they have seen signs that England have turned the corner, he is not so sure.

Carney concluded that unless the domestic competition is sorted out, rugby league in this part of the world will struggle. He emphasised that everybody must be adequately funded to bridge the performance gap. The upcoming matches will determine whether England’s men’s and women’s teams can salvage their World Cup campaigns.

The pressure is now on McDermott’s men to deliver a decisive performance against Papua New Guinea. The outcome of the Tonga versus Samoa match will ultimately dictate whether England’s hopes survive. Fans will be watching closely as the group stage reaches its climax in Australia.