Ospreys have commissioned a comprehensive data report from Sheffield Hallam University concluding that Wales must retain four professional rugby clubs. The analysis directly challenges the Welsh Rugby Union’s proposal to reduce the number of teams to three by 2028. The report argues that cutting a side is not a strategic move grounded in evidence.
The WRU intends to drop a professional side, with a final decision expected by next summer. Cardiff and Dragons are set to be granted the capital and east licences. Ospreys and Scarlets are currently competing to be the remaining side in west Wales.
Experts at Sheffield Hallam University produced the “Welsh rugby data report” at the Ospreys’ request. The independent analysis found that removing one team lacks logical evidential support. The full report will be published later this month and sent to the regions and WRU.
The report highlights that fixtures between the four Welsh clubs generated 48% of league attendances at home games in Wales from 2012 to 2026. With three clubs, these high-profile derbies would fall from 12 per season to just six. This reduction could significantly impact domestic attendance figures.
Removing one team would create a “bottleneck” for elite playing opportunities in Wales. The report warns this increases the risk of more Welsh players moving to clubs outside the country. Retaining four clubs is presented as essential for player development pathways.
The analysis finds that Wales have recorded higher Six Nations finishes in seasons when Welsh clubs performed well. All four clubs contribute distinct strengths to the national game. Cardiff recorded the highest average attendances, while Scarlets led in the European Cup.
Dragons achieved the highest stadium utilisation, while Ospreys hold the record in the league. Ospreys have supplied the most players to Wales and the British and Irish Lions. The report notes that financial constraints were not included in great depth in the initial findings.
The WRU has reported recent losses of £18m and says it must reduce professional rugby spend from £26m to £20m by 2028. The four sides currently receive about £6.5m each. The Ospreys report follows the Keystone report commissioned by the WRU, which outlined data supporting a cut.
The Ospreys state their league playing record between 2003 and 2026 is the strongest in the regional era. They have secured four championship wins and six play-off appearances. Their average league position is the highest among the Welsh clubs.
The research shows Ospreys are second among Welsh clubs in the European Cup. However, their 47 selections for World Cup squads and 181 selections for the Six Nations since 2008 are the most of any Welsh club. This data underscores their contribution to international success.
Ospreys point to 22 Welsh selections on British and Irish Lions tours, including 15 individuals. They boast representation on all six tours since 2005. The club is currently playing home games at St Helen’s in Swansea.
St Helen’s was redeveloped in partnership with Swansea Council, with investment from Y11 Sport & Media. The club operates an academy drawing on community clubs and schools in the region. ‘Ospreys in the Community’ works across Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend.
Alun Wyn Jones, former Wales captain and Ospreys director, chaired the working group that commissioned the report. He stated: “We want four clubs. This is not about one club’s record against another’s.
Jones added: “Cardiff, Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys have all put players in a Wales jersey, and the report shows what the four of them bring to Welsh rugby together. He emphasised the collective value of the four-club structure.
He continued: “Decisions about the future of the professional game in Wales should rest on the fullest evidence available. The report was undertaken by the sport and physical activity research centre (SPARC).
The authors were Dr Steve Bullough, Tim Vernon, David Barrett and professor Keith Davids. The report reviews data from the WRU’s November 2025 club locations data pack. It also analyses the Keystone report and material published by the WRU at futurerugby.cymru in October 2026.
The analysis covers club performance from 2003 to 2026, supply of players to Wales and the Lions, and attendances. It also examines stadium use, population, clubs and schools, and a limited set of financial indicators.
The period covered the 23 seasons from 2003-04, when the four Welsh professional clubs were formed, to 2025-26. This spans the Celtic League, Pro12, Pro14 and United Rugby Championship (URC). The data provides a long-term view of club performance.
Sheffield Hallam University is described as one of the UK’s leading centres for sport research. It is ranked in the world’s top 150 for sports-related subjects in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2026.
SPARC is one of the largest sport and physical activity research clusters in the UK. The centre has previously worked with the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, UK Sport, and all four home nation sports councils.
It has also collaborated with FIFA, the International Tennis Federation and The R&A. The Ospreys commissioned and paid for the report, with the fee fixed in advance regardless of findings. The region states the analysis and conclusions are the university’s own.
Reporting verified from official briefings and primary coverage by www.bbc.co.uk.
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