Russian satellite closes in on US radar asset aiding Ukraine

A Russian military satellite has executed a deliberate and unprecedented manoeuvre, closing in on a US-registered commercial radar satellite believed to provide critical intelligence support to Ukraine. Space-tracking data indicates that Cosmos 2612 approached ICEYE-X36 to within approximately 500 metres, a proximity that experts describe as dangerously close and highly unusual for commercial space assets. The incident marks a significant escalation in hybrid warfare tactics, raising serious concerns about the safety of commercial satellites that increasingly underpin modern military operations.

LeoLabs, a US-based space-tracking company, reported that the closest approach occurred over the weekend, with the Russian satellite moving between positions ahead of and behind the ICEYE craft. While the initial gap was estimated at roughly 4.8km, the distance narrowed significantly, with some reports suggesting the separation dropped to less than 30 metres at peak proximity.

By Monday, LeoLabs noted that Cosmos 2612 had begun to move away, though the precise intent behind the manoeuvre remains unclear. The satellite is one of six launched by the Russian military in April, and analysts suggest the close approach may have been a dry run for a future attack, a provocation to rattle Ukraine and its allies, or a test of operator reactions to such threats.

ICEYE, the Finnish company that owns the satellite, has supplied radar imagery to Ukraine since 2022. Rafal Modrzewski, the company’s chief executive, stated that ICEYE moved its own satellite in response to earlier Russian manoeuvres, which appeared to trigger further aggressive positioning by Cosmos 2612.

A Ukrainian official confirmed that the military works with ICEYE and utilises its capabilities, although it remains unclear whether the specific satellite, ICEYE-X36, directly supports Ukrainian operations. This ambiguity complicates the diplomatic and strategic implications of the incident, as the satellite is registered in the United States under ICEYE’s US subsidiary.

Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer in defence studies at King’s College London, described the event as the first instance of a state conducting such a close approach against a commercial satellite without the owner’s consent. He noted that while Russia has previously targeted Western military satellites, such as USA 245 in 2020, the focus on commercial assets signals a shift in strategy.

Hilborne warned that this manoeuvre indicates Russia does not distinguish between commercial and military targets, a development that is particularly concerning given the growing reliance of militaries on private space infrastructure. He characterised the action as an escalation, suggesting that any satellite could potentially be weaponised by crashing it into another.

Dr Marco Langbroek, a lecturer in optical space situational awareness at TU Delft, compared the danger to placing a car on a freeway within 10cm of another vehicle, highlighting the extreme risk of collision or interference. He explained that while Russia has practised close approaches with its own test targets in Low Earth Orbit, this incident is distinct due to the lack of cooperation from the satellite operator.

Langbroek emphasised that such actions are widely considered unacceptable in the space community due to the inherent dangers they pose to all parties in orbit. The manoeuvre fits into a broader pattern of hybrid warfare, akin to drone incursions into Polish airspace or low-elevation warship passes in the Baltic Sea.

Juliana Suess, a space security researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, suggested that Russia may be calculating that reactions will be less severe if it targets a commercial satellite rather than a sovereign one. She noted that a gap of less than 5km is essentially a “hop and a skip” in space, enabling potential nefarious activities such as data interception or temporary service disruption via signal jamming.

While a kinetic attack remains unlikely at this stage, Suess warned that the political goal of intimidation should not be underestimated. The incident serves as a reminder of Russia’s demonstrated capabilities to disrupt or destroy space assets, echoing the 2021 destruction of its own satellite with a missile.

Moscow has historically referred to such spacecraft as “inspector satellites” and described similar manoeuvres as common practice by many countries. However, Western military officials have reported a significant increase in Russian interference with Western space systems since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Hilborne stated that an outright attack on ICEYE-X36 appears unlikely given the current balance of the conflict and the unpredictable response such an action would provoke from the United States. Furthermore, any kinetic strike would generate substantial space debris, posing a long-term threat to global space operations.

The incident occurs against a backdrop of increasing pressure on Ukraine’s access to satellite data. In March 2025, the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency temporarily suspended Ukraine’s access to a main portal for commercial imagery during a pause in intelligence sharing. More recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Starshield, the military-grade version of SpaceX’s Starlink service, is currently unavailable to Ukraine, with requests for its use in deep strikes under discussion.

Suess noted that while Ukraine would not go blind if ICEYE-X36 were disrupted, the speed of data transfer is a critical factor. The question now is whether similarly rapid data access can be secured from alternative commercial or sovereign providers.