How Wales can win without making history v All Blacks

Wales face New Zealand at Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday, 14:10 GMT, in a Nations Championship fixture that marks their first meeting since Steve Tandy took over as head coach. The All Blacks arrive with a daunting record, having defeated the Welsh side in 34 consecutive encounters, a streak of misery that stretches back to a victory in December 1953.

Bookmakers currently favour Fiji’s chances in Ireland, while Japan’s odds against England are similar to Wales’ against New Zealand. Tickets remain available for the match, a stark contrast to previous years when supporters feared missing out on historic moments.

The likelihood of a 35th straight loss looms large, yet the question remains whether a competitive defeat can be considered a success. Wales recently secured a 28-21 victory against Japan, but morale remains low due to constant off-field turmoil within the game.

Head coach Steve Tandy has enjoyed victories against Japan twice, as well as wins over Fiji and Italy, since assuming the reins in 2025. However, Wales’ most recent victory of real significance was the 40-6 dismantling of Australia in the group stages of the 2023 World Cup under Warren Gatland.

The Wallabies are in town next Saturday at 20:10 GMT, presenting a potentially better chance for a statement win, especially after their shock defeat against England last weekend. Number eight Aaron Wainwright, who will be missed against New Zealand due to injury, stressed before the campaign that it is time to start making others sit up and take notice.

“It’s about now we need to start putting in those performances that are going to make teams worried about us,” he said before Wales failed to do that against Japan. The All Blacks aim to eliminate the threat posed by Wales flanker Morgan Cheating, amid ongoing scandal and drama surrounding the team.

Wales were ranked eighth in the world when edged out 26-25 by New Zealand in 2004, a defeat that came a fortnight after a 38-36 loss to South Africa. With 11 months to the start of the 2027 Rugby World Cup, time is running out to earn the respect of the teams that will travel to Australia with hopes of lifting the trophy.

“We want to push up the the rankings table, we want to get back into the top eight,” said Wales captain Dewi Lake. “You’re looking at two teams [in New Zealand and Australia] that are sitting in there. It’s an opportunity to see how we measure up.

The display against Japan did little to suggest that the gap to the elite is closing. The mood in the Wales camp is upbeat, with belief that progress is being made under Tandy and his new-look coaching team, albeit baby steps need to turn into strides.

“We were lucky last week that we were good enough to still win the game off the back of not performing as well as we wanted,” admitted Lake. “We’ve done a lot of work over the last year and a half on performance and we want to see that come to fruition.

“We know there are more levels in us and need to go there this weekend,” Lake continued. Tandy has tinkered with his team, with Wainwright’s injury presenting a big opportunity for Taine Basham to take his Cardiff club form on to the international stage.

The 27-year-old from Talywain was Wales’ star man against New Zealand in 2021 and this will be his first Test start since 2022. The dynamic back-row forward must grasp his opportunity in the most fiercely competitive department of the squad.

Wales stick with the heavyweight centre partnership of Max Llewellyn and Eddie James, with the pressure on the set-piece to provide more of a platform. The line-out struggled against Japan, who have top operators in Harry Hockings, Warner Dearns and Ben Gunter, but hooker Lake is confident it was just a bad day.

“Go back on our performances over the last 12 to 18 months and we’ve been one of the top teams in the world in that area,” said the Gloucester captain. “A lot of our tries have come from driving maul or line-out set plays. We have got backs who are dangerous on launch plays.

“When we do secure our set-piece we are a dangerous team. It was a setback last week but we’ll put it right,” Lake added. Montpellier lock Adam Beard, who is 6ft 8ins, returns to the side as line-out caller, while Dragons co-captain Ben Carter drops to the bench.

Wales scored four tries in defeat by New Zealand last year when Tom Rogers made history with a hat-trick, with his fellow wing Louis Rees-Zammit getting the other with an acrobatic finish. Rees-Zammit and full-back Blair Murray will aim to build on bright showings against Japan and have been joined by in-form Leicester wing Gabriel Hamer-Webb in the bid to give New Zealand a bloody nose.

“When you get the ball and get chances, be brave with it, be fearless because we have a strong back line and players who can finish,” said Rees-Zammit. Wales have only finished within a score of the All Blacks twice in 23 games since rugby union went professional in 1995.

In 2004 the defeat was by a point, with poor time management contributing to the narrow margin. The current fixture offers a chance to break the long-standing losing streak, though the odds remain heavily stacked against the home side.

Supporters will be hoping for a performance that matches the ambition expressed by the squad, as the team looks to assert itself against one of the world’s most dominant forces. The atmosphere at Principality Stadium is expected to be electric, with fans eager to see their team compete at the highest level.

The coaching staff have emphasised the importance of set-piece discipline, a key area where Wales have shown strength in recent months. Any improvement in this department could provide the platform for the backline to exploit the All Blacks’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Taine Basham’s inclusion signals a shift in the back-row dynamics, bringing experience and physicality to the forward pack. His previous success against New Zealand in 2021 suggests he has the capability to disrupt the All Blacks’ game plan significantly.

The centre partnership of Llewellyn and James provides a solid defensive core, crucial for containing the pace and power of the New Zealand attack. Their ability to break lines and support the backs will be tested in the coming hours.

Adam Beard’s return as line-out caller adds depth and reliability to the set-piece, a critical factor in maintaining possession and building attacks. His height and experience will be vital in contesting the All Blacks’ strong line-out operators.

The backline, featuring Rees-Zammit, Murray, and Hamer-Webb, offers a potent combination of speed and finishing ability.

Reporting verified from official briefings and primary coverage by www.bbc.co.uk.